ESTOFEX Storm Forecast

ESTOFEX Forecast www.estofex.org

A level 2 was issued for Spain for excessive precipitation, large hail, and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

The record-breaking high-pressure system in NW Europe is weakening but the cut-off low that has formed over the Iberian Peninsula is still active. Embedded short-wave troughs in this cold drop will continue to create favorable conditions for severe weather in eastern Spain. Another cut-off low is found in the extreme East Mediterranean and an intensifying trough in Scandinavia is about to move SE, bringing cold air masses in eastern Europe later during the week.

DISCUSSION

.... Spain ....

A strong easterly flow from the Mediterranean brings unstable air masses onshore, where apart from the large-scale lift, the local orographic lift will result in numerous storms in East Spain. Coastal areas and the Balearic Islands will experience a high threat of large hail given the steep mid-level lapse rates and a few hundreds of J/kg CAPE. DLS will range between 10-20 m/s and LLS will locally exceed 10 m/s with veering winds, increasing the threat of tornadogenesis.
The soil is already saturated due to the torrential rainfall on Monday 20/01, so the heavy rainfall that is expected on Tuesday 21/01 within the level 1 and 2 areas, will deteriorate the conditions for flash floods and landslides.

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